Population 23.368 million
GDP 24.273 US$ billion
@rating
country
Business climate
assessment
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012(e) | 2013(f) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP growth (%)
|
2.4 |
-4.7 |
8.1 |
6.2 |
|
Inflation (yearly average) (%)
|
1.4 |
4.9 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
|
Budget balance (% GDP)
|
-2.3 |
-5.7 |
-3.7 |
-1.9 |
|
Current account balance (% GDP)
|
2.0 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
|
Public debt (% GDP)
|
66.4 |
69.3 |
40.5 |
38.5 |
| (e) Estimate (f) Forecast | ||||
STRENGTHS
- Agricultural wealth, including cocoa, and diversification into hydrocarbons and ores
- Processing industry and modernisation of port and road infrastructures
- Further debt cancellation in June 2012 under HIPC and MDRI initiatives
WEAKNESSES
- Fragile security context despite normalisation of the political situation
- Economy dependent on developments in cocoa and oil prices
- Weak investment and governance
Risk assessment
Rapid recovery in economic activity
The economy recovered quickly after the ending of the post-electoral crisis (December 2010 – April 2011) thanks to normalisation of the political situation, increased public spending and renewed international aid. There was a sharp upturn in activity in 2012, driven by infrastructure investment, particularly in transport, and by the telecommunications sector. The agricultural sector, however, is suffering from low prices and a smaller cocoa crop. Activity is expected to be stimulated in 2013 by foreign investment and by a construction boom. The economy is also likely to continue to diversify thanks to the start of operations in new oil wells and a new gold mine. However, demand from the eurozone (more than 40% of exports), given its weakness, will not play a leading role. The occurrence of a current account deficit is foreseeable due to the sharp increase in imports of goods and services resulting from the recovery of economic activity.
In the medium term, the government’s ambitious investment programme and the finalisation of key reforms in the cocoa and hydrocarbons sectors augur well for the prospects of an economic upsurge. But these also depend on pacification of the country and improvement in the population’s living conditions. Moreover, deficiencies in governance and in the fight against corruption are important obstacles to development.
Public accounts are improving and the country has been granted further debt cancellation
Fiscal results are improving thanks to the economic recovery and the progress made in tax collection, although spending, especially on wages, is trending upwards. After the IMF facilities and a temporary debt relief granted in 2011, in June 2012 the Ivory Coast reached the completion point of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative, which opened the way to further easing of the bilateral and multilateral debt burden. The country also normalised its relations with private creditors, having again begun paying its 2010 eurobond coupons. However, the public debt profile is still vulnerable to external shocks (growth, borrowing conditions).
Although the political situation has returned to normal, the security situation has noticeably worsened since August 2012
Since the post-electoral crisis, the country has undergone a process of political normalisation. Legislative elections were held in December 2011, the first for over a decade, from which President Ouattara’s party emerged stronger, despite the boycott of the former ruling party. This party is trying to reconstruct itself after the arrest of its leader, the former president, Laurent Gbagbo, and his transfer to International Criminal Court in The Hague. The national reconciliation process is proving difficult to the extent that only members of the Gbagbo camp involved in human rights violations during the conflict have been charged. Moreover, there has been violence since July 2011 in the southwest of the country, attributed to pro-Gbagbo forces operating from neighbouring Liberia. In August 2012, the country experienced its most serious return of tension since the end of the post-electoral crisis, with the security forces coming under attack in Abidjan and its surrounds. There were further attacks in September, conducted this time from bases situated in Ghana, and in October, targeting a thermal power station near the capital.
