Population 10.553 million
GDP 193.513 US$ billion
@rating
country
Business climate
assessment
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012(e) | 2013(f) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP growth (%)
|
2.6 |
1.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.3 |
|
Inflation (yearly average) (%)
|
1.5 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
|
Budget balance (% GDP)
|
-4.8 |
-3.1 |
-3.2 |
-3.3 |
|
Current account balance (% GDP)
|
-3.8 |
-3 |
-2 |
-2.5 |
|
Public debt (% GDP)
|
37.6 |
40.5 |
43.1 |
45 |
| (e) Estimate (f) Forecast | ||||
STRENGTHS
- Strongly integrated into international production chain
- Favoured destination for foreign direct investment in central Europe
- Current account deficits, external debt, foreign currency indebtedness and credit growth contained
WEAKNESSES
- Heavy dependence on European demand: exports represent 84% of GDP, of which 67% are to the EU
- Aging population and lack of skills
- Geographic position away from the centre of Europe
Risk assessment
Growth dependent on European demand
In 2013, as in 2012, the Czech economy will suffer from the weak eurozone growth and from the austerity policies in place. Uncertainties over economic prospects as well as the political reasons for increasing VAT by one point put downward pressure on household consumption, which represents 50.7% of GDP. However, consumption will recover in the 4th quarter of 2013 due to a slight easing of the austerity policies at the end of the same year in the run up to the 2014 parliamentary elections. The job market will continue to worsen with long-term unemployment reaching 37% against 23% at the end of 2009. The Czech Central Bank cut its key rate three times in 2012 without impacting consumption. It is now at a floor of 0.05%. In the short term this accommodating monetary policy will benefit Czech exports, since Czech products will gain in competitiveness due to the depreciation of the Czech koruna. The country’s economy is very open: total foreign trade represented 145% of GDP in 2012. However, the economy’s complete integration into European manufacturing processes will prevent the country from benefiting from long-term from the fall in its currency. Moreover, the country suffers from a double exposure since 84% of exports are concentrated within the European Union (with 66% in the eurozone) and 17.5% relate to car manufacturing. In 2013, inflation will be below 3%, although higher than in 2010 and 2011 due to the VAT increase and the higher cost of imported products. Meanwhile, the Czech banking system, owned mainly by eurozone banks, could be a source of concern. However, unlike the majority of East European countries, the subsidiaries are largely financed by domestic deposits and are conservative with regard to prudential rules.
Reforms putting public finances in order
The government, called to order at the end of 2009 by the European Commission, brought the current account deficit down to around 3% of GDP. After fierce discussions within the coalition, the government approved a series of budgetary reforms (health and tax system) aimed at reducing the deficit and limiting public debt. The most important reforms relate to reduced fiscal allowances on home saving plans and stricter conditions for obtaining unemployment benefit. Moreover, the implementation in 2013 of a reform adopted in 2011 (despite much criticism) will confirm the principle of a funded pension system, which will gradually replace the pay-as-you go system. Public debt, up over 10 points compared with 2007, will remain sustainable and is entering a stabilisation phase. The current majority, however, wants to add 4 new critical levels of debt linked to the adoption of budget adjustments. So, if the debt exceeds 40% of GDP, preventive adjustment measures must be taken; from 45% public spending will be frozen; above 48% the budget must be immediately reviewed so as to halt the rise and there will be a vote of confidence in the government if the debt reaches 50% of GDP. Investor confidence is essential for the country as the current account deficit is covered by foreign direct investments weakened by the European environment. The current account deficit has been shrinking since the second half of 2011, especially because of falling domestic demand in response to the austerity policies. When these are eased in late 2013 the current account deficit will rise slightly.
Reforms in difficult social context
The Czech Republic is conducting an ambiguous policy with regard to the EU, a divisive issue for the coalition in power. This raises fears of Czech diplomacy being marginalised in Europe though joining the eurozone remains an ambition. European questions are a major source of disagreement between President Vaclav Klaus, hostile to an integrated Europe, and the social democrats, centrists and Christian democrats who, like the Czech population, are more pro-Europe.
Already weak, the coalition’s centre-right parliamentary majority is no longer assured after dissensions appeared in its ranks. With a big victory for the social democrats in the October 2012 regional and senate elections, the opposition is calling for early parliamentary elections to avoid any political deadlock until June 2014. One can probably assume power will change hands at the next presidential elections in January 2013. Meanwhile, corruption is still crippling the country with many instances involving ministers. To inject fresh democratic impetus in the face of declining participation and popular discontent linked to corruption, the next president will be elected for the first time by direct universal suffrage. The president will, however have only a representational role.


